Manter Lula nas pesquisas é estratégia ou estelionato?

Leonardo Barreto, da Factual Informação e Análise, defende que é preciso fazer uma avaliação mais crítica sobre o trabalho dos institutos de pesquisa nas eleições deste ano.

“Sempre houve um debate a respeito das pesquisas de opinião nas estratégias dos políticos. [As pesquisas] sempre foram importantes para definir políticas de coligações e de financiamento por parte dos doadores de campanha. Mas, desta vez, as pesquisas estão sendo utilizadas de uma maneira nunca vista antes e desempenham um papel central na estratégia do PT.”

Para o cientista político, está evidente que “continuar testando cenários eleitorais incluindo o ex-presidente Lula, mesmo sendo muito improvável que ele concorra, é o jeito que o PT encontrou para se manter vivo no pleito”.

“Na teoria, as pesquisas deveriam buscar apurar o posicionamento das pessoas a respeito do cenário mais provável, ou seja, quanto mais realista é o questionário, mais credibilidade ele tem. Dessa forma, como o nome de Lula dificilmente estará nas urnas em outubro, os institutos parecem sacrificar um pouco esse rigor metodológico em função do ‘valor notícia’ que tem um resultado com o nome do petista.”

Barreto afirma que “os institutos continuam desempenhando um bom papel para o PT” e questiona se isso é “estratégia ou estelionato”.

“Existe uma estratégia que pode ser confundida como ‘confundir para vencer’. Tem até que se discutir se isso é estratégia ou estelionato.”

A presença de Lula nas pesquisas, reforça o especialista, é central para o PT.

“Sem uma alternativa que sequer se aproxime da densidade eleitoral do ex-presidente, é vital para o partido preservar a sua capacidade de transferência de voto. Segundo essa lógica, manter Lula como candidato virtual conserva o seu eleitorado fidelizado.”

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  1. M. disse:

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Ler comentários
  1. besta disse:

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  2. Anne disse:

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  3. Pandeiro disse:

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  4. Rialista disse:

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  5. Luciano disse:

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  6. wanderlei disse:

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  7. Luiz disse:

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  8. x disse:

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  9. ISSO disse:

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  10. Soares disse:

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  11. Cidadão disse:

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  12. Marcelo disse:

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  13. disse:

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  14. Ladroagem disse:

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  15. databrigadefoicenoescuro disse:

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  16. NÃO disse:

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  17. Jaime disse:

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  18. JACARÉ disse:

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    1. ySBMYWRvcmEgb3UgTEFEUk9BPyBMVUxBRFLDTyBudW5jYSBtYWlzLCBQVCBudW5jYSBtYWlzLCBDb211bmlzbW8gbnVuY2EgbWFpcy4=

  19. Seria disse:

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  20. PauloPedrantônio disse:

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  21. Ana disse:

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  22. É disse:

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  23. Giusti disse:

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  24. Geomático disse:

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  25. walter disse:

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  26. juliano disse:

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  27. Alex disse:

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  28. Moritz disse:

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  29. Aurelio disse:

    UXVlbSBwYWdhIGFzIHBlc3F1aXNhIG1hbmlwdWxhIGEgaW5mb3JtYefjby4gQ29tdW5pc3RhcyBz428gYm9ucyBuaXNzby4g

  30. José disse:

    TWFudGVyIG8gY29uZGVuYWRvIG5hcyBwZXNxdWlzYXMg6SBGQUtFIE5FV1MhIE9uZGUgZXN0428gbm9zc29zID92aWdpbGFudGVzPyBmYWN0IGNoZWNrZXJzPyE=

  31. Ronaldo disse:

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  32. Mauricio disse:

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  33. Marcos disse:

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  34. gilos disse:

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  35. Na disse:

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  36. Luiz disse:

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  37. Genromel disse:

    ySBFU1RFTElPTkFUTywgQVBPTE9HSUEgRE8gQ1JJTUUgRSBDUklNRSBERSBBUE9MT0dJQSBBIENSSU1JTk9TTyBDT05ERU5BRE8hIE1BUyBBUyBFU1FVRVJET1BBVEFTIC0gQVFVSUxPIFFVRSBT0yBTRVJWRSBQQVJBIElOVkVOVEFSIE1FTlRJUkEgRSBFTkdBTkFSIEEgVE9ET1MgLSBDT05USU5VQSBBIFFVRVJFUiBOT1MgRE9NSU5BUiBQT1IgTUVOVElSQVMgRSBNQUlTIE1FTlRJUkFTLi4uIFBPUiBRVUUgRVhJU1RFTSBJRElPVEFTIEFTU0lNPz8/ISEhISEhISEhISE=

  38. Guilherme disse:

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  39. AntagonistaSurtado disse:

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  40. Marcelo disse:

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  41. INIMIGO disse:

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  42. Sackful disse:

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  43. Aden disse:

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  44. Revolução disse:

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