“A possibilidade de vitória no primeiro turno não é zero”

Os pesquisadores ouvidos por O Antagonista calcularam em 25% as chances de vitória de Jair Bolsonaro no primeiro turno (leia aqui).

Márcia Cavallari, do Ibope, disse para o Estadão:

“Essa possibilidade existe. Mas é uma probabilidade muito pequena. Bolsonaro tem 38% de votos válidos, segundo nossa pesquisa mais recente. Ele teria de crescer 12 pontos percentuais até o dia da eleição, já que precisaria de 50% mais um. E não estamos vendo movimentação, pelo menos até a pesquisa de segunda-feira, de perda de votos dos demais candidatos. Isso reduz o espaço para crescer 12 pontos nessa semana. Se outros candidatos estivessem em curva descendente, o Ciro, o Alckmin, o próprio Haddad… Mas não é o que estamos vendo. Ciro está estável com 11% há muito tempo, Alckmin oscila em torno de 8% há muito tempo (…).

O que está diminuindo é a quantidade de eleitores indecisos. Esse crescimento do Bolsonaro vem muito daí. Gente que está votando branco e nulo pode ir para ele. A possibilidade de vitória no primeiro turno não é zero. Ela existe. Mas, com o resultado da pesquisa de ontem, essa probabilidade é pequena, porque o movimento teria de ser muito rápido e significativo. Para crescer 12 pontos, ele teria de tirar dos demais candidatos ou reduzir branco e nulo.”

Você sabe o que a grande imprensa não conta sobre o embate entre Bolsonaro e Haddad? Confira AQUI

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  1. Jose disse:

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  2. PAULO disse:

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  3. Marta disse:

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  4. NELSON disse:

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  5. Gustavo disse:

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    1. QSBs7W5ndWEgYu1maWRhIHJldmVsYSBhdXPqbmNpYSBkZSBjYXLhdGVyIQ==

    2. VeksIGVzdOEgcXVlcmVuZG8gaW5zaW51YXIgcXVlIHBvc3RhZ2VucyBkZSB2Ze1jdWxvcyBkZSBpbXByZW5zYSBlc3TjbyB0ZW5kbyDqeGl0byBlbSBpbmZsdWVuY2lhciBlbGVpdG9yZXM/IFNlIGZvc3NlIGFzc2ltIEJvbHNvbmFybyB0ZXJpYSBtZW5vcyB2b3RvcyBxdWUgRXltYWVsLiA=

  6. Barbosa disse:

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  7. Barbosa disse:

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  8. Martins disse:

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  9. Perez disse:

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    1. R3VndS4uLi4gcXVlbSBu428gdXNhIHJlZGUgc29jaWFsPz8/IEF06SBvcyBhdvNzIHVzYW0gcmVkZSBzb2NpYWwhIENoaXAgcHLpLXBhZ28gYWNlc3NhIGEgaW50ZXJuZXQhIA==

    2. QW7hbGlzZXMgZGUgcXVlbSB1c2EgcmVkZXMgc29jaWFpcyBzb21lbnRlLiBPIEJyYXNpbCDpIG11aXRvIG1haW9yIHF1ZSBlc3NlIG11bmRpbmhvIG1vZGVybmV4

  10. Rogério disse:

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  11. Gustavo disse:

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  12. João disse:

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  13. Natalício disse:

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  14. José disse:

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  15. SONIA disse:

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  16. Celso disse:

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  17. Paulo disse:

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    2. TyBjYXJhIGNvbSA3cyBkZSB0ZW1wbyBjb25zZWd1aXUgaXNzby4gSW1hZ2luYSBjb20gbWV0YWRlIGRvIHRlbXBvLi4uIFBhcmEgbyAybyB0dXJubyBvcyBpbnN0aXR1dG9zIGFpbmRhIHRlbSBtYXJnZW0gcHJhIG1hbmlwdWxhciBpZ3VhbCBmaXplcmFtIG5vIGlu7WNpbyBkbyAxbyBhdOkgZXN0YSBzZW1hbmEuLi4=

  18. perez disse:

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  19. renato disse:

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  20. Alex disse:

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  21. Alex disse:

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  22. 3pinos disse:

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  23. perez disse:

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  24. Jardel disse:

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    1. Q29sb2NhciBmaWxobyBuYSBwb2ztdGljYT8gUXVlIGV1IHNhaWJhLCB1bSBjYW5kaWRhdG8gdGVtIHF1ZSByZWNlYmVyIHZvdG9zIHByYSBzZSBlbGVnZXIsIG7jbyBzZXIgY29sb2NhZG8gcG9yIGFsZ3XpbS4gT3Ugc2Vy4SBxdWUgbXVkb3U/

    2. ySBmaWNoYSBsaW1wYSBhaW5kYSBwcSwgZGV2aWRvIOAgc3VhIGlycmVsZXbibmNpYSBwb2ztdGljYSBib2Eg+mx0aW1vcyAyMCBhbm9zLCBudW5jYSBmb2kgY2hhbWFkbyBwYXJhIGVzcXVlbWFzLiBObyBlbnRhbnRvLCBjb2xvY2FyIDAzIGZpbGhvcyBuYSBwb2ztdGljYSBq4SDpIHVtIGluZO1jaW8gZGUgc3VhIO1uZG9sZS4=

  25. Pedro disse:

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  26. Noely disse:

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  27. perez disse:

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  28. Fernando disse:

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  29. Eduardo disse:

    U2UgYXTpIG8gaWJvcGUgcXVlIGZpY2EgbWFuaXB1bGFuZG8gZGFkb3MsIHRlbnRhbmRvIG5vcyBlbmdhbmFyLCBq4SBlc3ThIGFzc3VtaW5kbyB2aXTzcmlhLi4uIEVudONvIGVzc2VzIDI1JSBkZXZlIHNlciB1bnMgMzUlIGMgY2VydGV6YS4=

  30. perez disse:

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  31. 3pinos disse:

    ZXNzZSBuZWfzY2lvIGRlIGNvbnN0aXR1aW50ZSDpIGNvaXNhIG11aXRvIHPpcmlhLCBxdWVtIG9yZ2FuaXphIGUgY29tYW5kYSBz428gb3MgbXN0cyBkYSB2aWRhLCBlIHF1ZW0gc+NvIGVsZWl0b3Mgc+NvIG9zIGFk6Wxpb3MgZGEgdmlkYSAuLi4uIGrhIHZpdSBvbmRlIGlzc28gaWEgYWNhYmFyIG7pID8gbnVuY2EgbWFpcyAuLi4uLi4=

  32. SILVIO disse:

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  33. Marcelo disse:

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  34. Marisa disse:

    TWFzIGFzIHBlc3F1aXNhcyBu428gY2FwdGFtIE1lbnRpcmFzLiBUcupzIHBlc3NvYXMgcHLzeGltYXMgbWUgb3JpZW50YXJhbSBpbnNpbnVhbmRvIHBhcmEgZGl6ZXIgcS4gaWEgdm90YXIgbm8gQ2lybyBwYXJhIGV2aXRhciBjb25mcm9udG8gZSBu428gYXJyYW5oYXIgIGltYWdlbSBwZXNzb2FsIGUgbuNvIHJldmVsYXNzZSB2b3RvIEJvbHNv

    1. VGIgcGVyY2ViaSBpc3RvIGRvcyAiYXJ0aXN0YXMiLiBNaXRvIG5vIDGwIFR1cm5vISE=

  35. Carlos disse:

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  36. Rachel disse:

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  37. vmcunha disse:

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  38. HELIO disse:

    VmVqYW0gbyBwb3JxdWUgZGUgSmFpciBCb2xzb25hcm8gc3ViaXIgdmVydGlnaW5vc2FtZW50ZS4gRSBjb250aW51ZW0gY29tIHZvc3NvcyBjYW5kaWRhdG9zLiANCg==

  39. Pietro disse:

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  40. RICARDO disse:

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  41. Pietro disse:

    VklU01JJQSBkZSBCb2xzb25hcm8gbm8gMbogVHVybm8gauEg6SB1bWEgUFJPQkFCSUxJREFERSBSRUFMIHAvICdMZWkgZG9zIEdyYW5kZXMgTvptZXJvcycgLSBUZW9yZW1hIGRlIEJlcm5vdWxsaSAtICgiQ2V0ZXJpcyBQYXJpYnVzIikuIExlciAtIGFkIHJlZmVyZW5kdW0gZGVzdGUgc2l0ZSAtIGVtIGZhY2Vib29rLmNvbS9hcXVpbmE=

  42. Antonio disse:

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  43. Djalma disse:

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    1. SXNzbyBtZXNtbywgc2UgZWxlIHRpcmFyIGRvcyBvdXRyb3MsIGJhc3RhIGNyZXNjZXIgNiBwb250b3MuIENvbnNpZGVyYW5kbyBhIG1hcmdlbSBkZSBlcnJvIHBhZHLjbyBkYXMgcGVzcXVpc2EgcXVlIGVzdGFtb3MgYWNvc3R1bWFkb3MgYSBwcmVzZW5jaWFyLCBkZSAyMCUgcGFyYSBtYWlzIG91IHBhcmEgbWVub3MsIGrhIGVzdGFtb3MgbOEuICM=

  44. LucasPTralha disse:

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  45. Everton disse:

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  46. Aderval disse:

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  47. ROBSON disse:

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  48. NordesteLivre17 disse:

    TmEgdmVyZGFkZWlyYSBwZXNxdWlzYSBkYSBwb3B1bGHn428sIGFudGVzIGRvIGF0ZW50YWRvIGrhIGVyYSBSRUFMIGEgdml083JpYSBkZSBCMTcgbm8gMbAgdHVybm8hIEFnb3JhIG7jbyBwb2RlbmRvIG1haXMgbWFuaXB1bGFyIGFzICdwZXNxdWlzYXMnIHPzIGVzdONvIGFqdXN0YW5kbyBvcyBu+m1lcm9zIGRhIHZlcmdvbmhhIQ==

  49. Hudson disse:

    Q3VpZGFkbyBJYm9wZSBhIGNvaXNhIG5hcyBydWFzIGVzdOEgZGUgYXNzdXN0YXIuVmFtb3MgZmF6ZXIgdW1hIGNhcnJlYXRhIHNleHRhIGVtIG1pbmhhIGNpZGFkZSxlc3RhbW9zIGRpc3RyaWJ1aW5kbyBhZGVzaXZvcyBlIGEgcHJvY3VyYSBhc3VzdGEuVG9kbyBtdW5kbyAxNy4=

  50. LucasPTralha disse:

    VmMgdOEgcGlyYWRpbmhvIFZFQUTDTyBCVVJSTyBQRVRSQUxIQS4gRXNzZSBzZXUgUGF1bG8vUEFVTE8gZXJhIHBybyBCb2xzbyBhZ29yYSB2aXJvdSB1bSBDQUdBTEjDTyBJRElPVEEgc/MgZXNjcmV2ZW5kbyBNRVJEQSEgTHVjYXMgU2lsdmEgduEgc2UgdHJhdGFyIHNldSBMSVhPIFBFVFJBTEhBISBUwSBET0lETyE=

  51. Jota disse:

    Tm9zc2EgcGVzcXVpc2Egc+NvIGFzIFJVQVM6IFNlcuEgbm8gcHJpbWVpcm8gdHVybm8hIEJPTFNPTkFSTyBQcmVzaWRlbnRlLg==

  52. Valdir disse:

    U2Vy4SBUZXJlemE/IE91IE8gT2JzZXJ2YWRvci4uLi4gb3UgYWluZG8gbyBDaWRhZONvPyBNdWRvdSBvIG5vbWUsIG1hcyBvIGRpc2N1cnNvIGNvbnRpbnVhIGEgbWVzbWEgaWRpb3RpY2UhICQkJCQkJCQkJCQkJCQkJA==

  53. ERW disse:

    T3V0cm9zIGNhbmFsaGFzIGRlIHBlc3F1aXNhIGHtLi4uIHFkbyBvIFBPVk8gZmFsYSBuYXMgcmVkZXMg6SB0dWRvIGJvYmFnZW0uIFFkbyDpIGVzc2EgdGNodXJtYSBkaXBsb21hZGluaGEgZG8gYXIgY29uZGljaW9uYWRvIOkgaW5mb3JtYefjby4gT3JhIFBvcnJhISEh

  54. Luiz disse:

    RSB2b2PqIHVtIHZlYWRpbmhvIGVucnVzdGlkbyBlIGNvbSB1bWEgdHJlbWVuZGEgZSBkb2xvcm9zYSBmYWx0YSBkZSBQaWNhIEdyb3NzYSE=

  55. Janete disse:

    Qm9tIGRpYSAhICDJICB1bSBwcmF6ZXIgdmVyIE1pcmlhbSBMZWl0b2EgbGlnbyBjZWRvIG5hIEdsb2JvIHZpc2l2ZWxtZW50ZSBicmF2aW5oYSBlIHRlbnRhbmRvIHRvcmNlciB0dWRvIHZlbSByZWxh5+NvIGFvIG90aW1pc21vIGRvIG1lcmNhZG8gY29tIGEgVml083JpYSBkbyBCb2xzb25hcm8hISBFbGEgdGVudGEgZXhwbGljYXIgcXVlIGlzcw==

    1. VHUgZSBtZXNtbyB1bSBpZGlvdGEsYWluZGEgZmljYSBvdXZpbmRvIGVzdOFzIGJpc2NhdGVzIGRhbmRvIG9waW5p428/

  56. Janete disse:

    Qm9tIGRpYSAhICDJICB1bSBwcmF6ZXIgdmVyIE1pcmlhbSBMZWl0b2EgbGlnbyBjZWRvIG5hIEdsb2JvIHZpc2l2ZWxtZW50ZSBicmF2aW5oYSBlIHRlbnRhbmRvIHRvcmNlciB0dWRvIHZlbSByZWxh5+NvIGFvIG90aW1pc21vIGRvIG1lcmNhZG8gY29tIGEgVml083JpYSBkbyBCb2xzb25hcm8hISBFbGEgdGVudGEgZXhwbGljYXIgcXVlIGlzcw==

    1. Li4uIHF1ZSBpc3NvIOkgZGV2aWRvIGEgcG9s7XRpY2EgZWNvbvRtaWNhIGRvIGdvdmVybm8gVGVtZXIhISEgS2traywgbuNvIHF1ZSBu428gYWp1ZGUgYSBpbmZsYefjbyB0ZXIgYmFpeGFkbyEgTWFzIG8gMTcgbm8gcHJpbWVpcm8gdHVybm8gYW1wbGlvdSBhIGNvbmZpYW7nYSBubyBtZXJjYWRvISBPIHF1ZSBkZWl4YSBMZWl0428gZW4=

  57. Alexandre disse:

    U2UgbuNvIHZpZXIgbyB0cml1bmZvIGRvIEJvbHNvIG5vIGRvbWluZ28sIGhhdmVy4SBhaW5kYSBhIHNlbnRlbudhIGRvIHPtdGlvIGRvIG1hbGFuZHJvIHF1ZSBhcnJ1aW5hcuEgYSBjYW1wYW5oYSBkbyBQVC4gQWzpbSBkaXN0bywgdG9kb3MgdmVy428gcXVlIG8gQW5kcmFkZSDpIHVtIGlkaW90YS4uLg==

  58. Mônica disse:

    yS4gIE7zcyBhcXVpIHZhbW9zLiBWb2PqIGHtIHZhaSBjb250aW51YXIgY29udHJpYnVpbmRvIHBhcmEgYXMgY29udGFzIGludGVybmFjaW9uYWlzIGRvcyBjb3JydXB0b3MuIEJvYSAkb3J0ZS4g

  59. Luiz disse:

    UG9pcyDpLCB1bWEgYmFndW7nYSBjcmlhZGEgZW0gMTQgYW5vcyBkZSBnb3Zlcm5vIGRvIFBULiBFbGUgdGVtIGNoYW5jZSBubyAxbyB0dXJubyBleGF0YW1lbnRlIHBxIGFzIHBlc3NvYXMgZGVzZWphbSBhcnJ1bWFyIGEgYmFndW7nYSBlLCBjZXJ0YW1lbnRlLCBhIGVzcXVlcmRhIG7jbyDpIHVtYSBvcOfjbyBwcmEgaXNzbyBtYXMgY29udA==

  60. Fernando disse:

    Qm9sc29uYXJvIHRlbSBxIGZhemVyIGEgZ2Vua2kgZGFtYSwgcHJhIGZlY2hhciBhIGZhdHVyYSBubyAxIHR1cm5vIEIxNyAhISEhISEhIQ==

  61. Lauro disse:

    UGVzc29hbCB2YW1vcyB2b3RhciBkZSBjYWJvIGEgcmFibyBubyAxNywgZXNjb2xoYW0gY2FuZGlkYXRvcyBhcGVuYXMgZG8gUFNMIG91IHF1ZSBhcG9pYW0gQm9sc29uYXJvLiBWaXTzcmlhIGVtIHByaW1laXJvIHR1cm5vIHBhcmEgbXVkYXIgbyBCcmFzaWwgcGFyYSBtZWxob3I=

  62. Valdir disse:

    UXVhbnRvIHF1ZXJlbSBhcG9zdGFyIHF1ZSBuYSBzZXh0YSBlIHPhYmFkbyBq4SBmYWxhbSBlbSBncmFuZGVzIHBvc3NpYmlsaWRhZGVzIGUgYXTpIGdhcmFudGlhcyBkZSB2aXTzcmlhIG5vIDFvIHR1cm5vLg==

  63. Rogério disse:

    QnVycm9zIGUgYnVycmFzIHPjbyBhcyB2YWRpYXMgZGUgYmFuZGlkbyBxdWUgc2UgbWFzdHVyYmFtIHF1YW5kbyBzYWJlIHF1ZSBzZXUgY2FuZGlkYXRvIGVzdOEgbmEgY2FkZWlhLCByb3ViYSBtZXJlbmRhIGVzY29sYXIsIG91IGNoYW1hIG9zIGVsZWl0b3JlcyBlIG91dHJvcyBjYW5kaWRhdG9zIGRlIGZpbGhvcyBkYSBwdXRhIQ==

  64. Luiz disse:

    UXVlbSB2b3RhIEJvbHNvbmFybyB2b3RhIGNvbnZpY3RvIHBxIHF1ZXIgdGlyYXIgbyBwYWlzIGRlc3RhIHNpdHVh5+NvLiBO428gaGF2ZXLhIGFic3Rlbuf1ZXMgZGVzdGVzIGVsZWl0b3Jlcy4gQWdvcmEgcXVlbSB2b3RhIG5hIGVzcXVlcmRhLi4uLg==

  65. Pedro disse:

    SGEgaGEgaGEuIFNlIGVzdGUgaW5zdGl0dXRvIGRlID9wZXNxdWlzYT8gZGEgMzglIGRvcyB2YWxpZG9zIGVoIHBxIG8gQm9sc29uYXJvIHRlbSwgZmFjaWxtZW50ZSwgdW5zIDUwJS4gRSBhaW5kYSB0ZW0gbXRhIGdlbnRlIHEgZmluYWxtZW50ZSBwZXJjZWJldSBxIG8gUFQgZWggbyByaXNjbyBkZSBWZW5lenVlbGl6YWNhbyBkbyBCcmFzaWwuLg==

  66. Alex disse:

    VGVtIHF1ZSBtYXRhciBhIGVsZWnn428sIG5vIHByaW1laXJvIHR1cm5vIG8gdW5pY28gcmlzY28gcmVhbCBkbyBib2xzb25hcm8gcGVyZGVyIOkgc2UgbyBvIGFsY2ttaW4gcGFzc2FyIHBybyBzZWd1bmRvIHR1cm5vLCBmb3JhIGlzdG8sIGFjaG8gcXVlIGrhIGVyYSwg6SBzb21lbnRlIHVtYSBhbuFsaXNl

  67. Almir disse:

    TmVzdGUgc2l0ZSBlbmNvbnRyYS1zZSBjYW5kaWRhdG9zLCBwb3IgRXN0YWRvLCBzdWdlcmlkb3MgcGVsbyBKYWlyIEJvbHNvbmFybywgcXVlIHBvZGVtIGFqdWRhLWxvIG5hIGFwcm92YefjbyBkb3Mgc2V1cyBwcm9qZXRvcyBuYSBj4m1hcmEgZSBzZW5hZG8gLSB3d3cuYm9sc29uYXJvLmNvbS5iciwgYWNlc3NvIG5vIGNhbXBvID92b3RlPw==

  68. Carlos disse:

    VmFtb3Mgbm8gZGlhIDA3LzEwIG1vc3RyYXIgYSBmb3LnYSBxdWUgbyBwb3ZvIGJyYXNpbGVpcm8gaG9uZXN0byBlIHRyYWJhbGhhZG9yIHRlbSwgcXVlIHZlbmhhIG8gVGlzdW5hTWl0by4uLg==

  69. Ronaldo disse:

    TyB2b3RvIHV0aWwgdmFpIGVsZWdlciBCb2xzb25hcm8gbm8gcHJpbWVpcm8gdHVybm8sIGVzcGVyZW0gcHJhIHZlciwgdG9kYXMgZXNzYXMgcGVzcXVpc2FzIG7jbyB0ZW0gY3JpdGVyaW9zIGZ1bmRhbWVudGFkb3Mgb3Ugc+NvIG1hbmlwdWxhZGFzLg==