“Tem que ser R$ 800 bilhões ou acima”

O economista-chefe do banco UBS, Tony Volpon, disse para O Globo que, se a reforma for aprovada no primeiro semestre, o PIB pode crescer entre 2,8% e 3%.

Ele está otimista:

“O governo vai saber se organizar até maio ou junho para ter coalizão no Congresso.

A proposta, como está agora, não passaria. Mas a coalizão tem de ser construída até maio. O presidente Bolsonaro sabe que a aprovação da Previdência é a única chance de ser reeleito. A não aprovação fará o governo cair em uma crise financeira. Hoje, se o governo não tem votos para a aprovação é irrelevante. A base tem que existir em maio.”

O valor final tem de ser acima de 800 bilhões de reais:

“A proposta é mais dura que a anterior. O governo sabia que teria de negociar com o Congresso. Mas será preciso achar um conjunto de mudanças que leve o governo a ter 308 votos para aprovação na Câmara, com uma margem de segurança de 320. O custo disso tem que ser o mínimo possível. O mercado gostava dos R$ 800 bilhões de economia que a primeira proposta de Temer trouxe. Mas não gostou dos R$ 500 bilhões quando o projeto foi desidratado. Acho que tem que ser R$ 800 bilhões ou acima. Nunca abaixo disso.”

Saiba em detalhes por que pautas importantes demoram tanto a serem votadas. Acompanhe aqui!

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