Qual é a probabilidade de um fracasso da reforma?

Qual é a probabilidade de um fracasso total da reforma previdenciária?

A pergunta foi feita pelo Valor a uma das diretoras da Fitch, que respondeu:

“É difícil calcular a probabilidade desse cenário. Por exemplo, a reforma da Previdência estava muito próxima de ser votada no governo passado, do ex-presidente Michel Temer. Mas riscos idiossincráticos levaram ao fracasso. Mesmo que o debate sobre a reforma esteja mais maduro, entendemos que o governo está tentando formar uma coalizão e um consenso para aprovar a reforma. O fato é que riscos idiossincráticos podem contaminar o ambiente político e dificultar o avanço da reforma, mesmo desta vez.”

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  1. AAlberto Fernando Barddal Drummond Filho disse:

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    1. VGFtYultIGNvbSBwcmVzaWRlbnRlIGNvdmVyIGRhIGRpbG1hLCBxbnQgYmVzdGVpcmEgbWV1IGRldXMuLi4ubnVuY2EgdmkgdGFudG8gdGlybyBubyBw6SBkZSB1bWEgc28gdmV6Li4u

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  1. MMARCO BETTEGA disse:

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    1. RSDpIGlkaW9zc2luY3LhdGljbyBkbyBwb3ZvIHRvbWFyIG5hIGJ1bi5kYS4gUmVjbGFtYSwgbWFzIGdvemEu

  2. MMARCO BETTEGA disse:

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    1. S0tLS0ssIHJpc2NvIGlkaW9zc2luY3LhdGljbyBkZXZlIHNlciBvICJpZGlvdGEgc2VjcmV0byIsIGFxdWVsZSBxdWUgZmF6IHJldW5p9WVzIG5vdHVybmFzIGVtIHBvcvVlcyBzdWJ0ZXJy4m5lb3MuIA==

  3. Serena disse:

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  4. Martins disse:

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  5. Luis disse:

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  6. José disse:

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  7. MAC disse:

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  8. Izaias disse:

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  9. Carlos disse:

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  10. Manoel disse:

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  11. alberto disse:

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  12. Orion disse:

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    1. UGFyYSBzZSBhcG9zZW50YXIgc2Vy4SBuZWNlc3PhcmlvcyAzIGRvY3VtZW50b3M6IDEwIEF0ZXN0YWRvIGRlIPNiaXRvOyAyKSBFbmRlcmXnbyBkbyBjZW1pdOlyaW87IDMpIE76bWVybyBkbyB0+m11bG8u

    2. a2tra2trayBGYWxlIHBvciB2b2PqISBFbnF1YW50byBu428gZm9yIHVtYSByZWZvcm1hIHF1ZSBWRVJEQURFSVJBTUVOVEUgY29ydGUgbmEgY2FybmUgZG9zIHByaXZpbGVnaWFkb3MgZXUgc2lnbyBzZW5kbyBjb250cmEuLi4uIFBxIG5hIHJlYWxpZGFkZSwgbuNvIGVzdOEgY29ydGFuZG8gbmVtIHVtIG3tbmltbyBkZSBwcml2aWzpZ2lvcy4=

    3. T3MgY29udGF0b3MgZG9zIGNvbmdyZXNzaXN0YXMg6SBw+mJsaWNvLiBM4SBubyBtYXBhZGFwcmV2aWRlbmNpYSB0ZW0gb3MgY29udGF0b3MgZGUgdG9kb3Mgb3MgY29uZ3Jlc3Npc3Rhcy4=

  13. egidio disse:

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  14. gilberto disse:

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  15. Fernando disse:

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  16. Ivan disse:

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  17. Reinaldo disse:

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  18. Regildo disse:

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  19. CarlosGomes disse:

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  20. Trump disse:

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